本研究以中亚典型冰川融化区玛纳斯河流域为例,研究玛纳斯河流域近60 a气候变化趋势,分析玛纳斯河流域上中下游气温及降水空间变化格局,运用墨西哥帽小波函数法对玛纳斯河流域气温及降水的周期规律进行分析.结果表明,近60a来,玛纳斯河流域经历了一个增温趋湿的过程,气温、降水量的增加幅度分别为0.44℃/10a、11.6 mm/10a;在空间分布上,玛纳斯河流域气温增温幅度由上游到下游逐渐升高.年降水则呈现由上游到下游逐渐降低的相反趋势;玛纳斯河流域年平均气温有着明显的9 a周期震荡,并且年平均气温在未来一段时间将表现为增加趋势;全年降水存在明显的6 a周期震荡,同时年降水在未来的一段时间表现为丰水期.研究结果对研究干旱区区域尺度气候变化规律有一定借鉴意义.%The author considered the Manas River valley in China as the example to study the regional climate change. The temporal and spatial climate variation from 1956 to 2010 was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall method and Wavelet analysis method. The results showed that the climate tended to be warm and humid in the last 6 decades. Both the temperature and precipitation increased considerably with a rate of 0. 44℃/10a and 11.6 mm/l0a,respectively. Tem-perature increased gradually from upstream to downstream in the Manas River valley,while precipitation showed an opposite trend. The periodic variation of temperature and precipitation showed considerable difference. Annual temperature experienced the periodic variation within the range of around 9 years,while the precipitation experienced the primary cycle within 6 years. The research results had certain reference meaning to study regional scale climate change in the arid area.
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