用 IAP／LASG GOALS模式模拟CO2增加引起的东亚地区气候变化

摘要

Two simulations, one for the control run and another for the perturbation run, with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system model (IAP / LASG GOALS version 4) have been carried out to study the global warming, with much detailed emphasis on East Asia. Results indicate that there is no climate drift in the control run and at the time of CO2 doubling the global temperature increases about 1.65℃. The GOALS model is able to simulate the observed spatial distribution and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for East Asia quite well. But, in general, the model underestimates temperature and overestimates rainfall amount for regional annual average. For the climate change in East Asia, the temperature and precipitation in East Asia increase 2. l℃ and 5% respectively, and the maximum warming occurs at middle-latitude continent and the maximum precipitation increase occurs around 25°N with reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific.%用一个全球耦合的海洋－大气－陆地系统模式(IAP／LASG GOALS)研究因CO2增加引起的全球增暖，重点是讨论东亚地区气候变化。完成了两个试验，一个是CO2含量保持不变的对照试验，一个是CO2浓度按每年10％增加的扰动试验。结果表明，在对照试验中没有出现气候漂移，在CO2含量加倍时全球平均地面气温将增加1.65℃。GOALS模式能较好模拟观测的东亚温度和降水的空间分体和年循环，但模拟的年平均温度略偏低、年降水稍偏大。在CO2含量加倍时，东亚地区温度和降水将分别增加2.1℃和5％，最大增温出现在中纬度大陆上，最大的降水增加出现在25N附近。