安徽省粮食产量的影响因素研究

摘要

According to the statistical data of agricultural production in 16 prefecture-level cities of Anhui province during 2005~2014, the author selected 10 influencing factors from 3 macroscopic aspects ( nature, technology and economy) , and ana-lyzed the factors affecting the yield of food crops ( including rice, wheat, maize, potato and soybean) in Anhui province by using panel data model.The results showed that:( 1) In recent 10 years, the food yield in Anhui province gradually increased at the rate of 758310 t/a, and the average annual growth rate was 3.06%;( 2) The factors that had a significant impact on food produc-tion in Anhui province were the damage area, sown area of grain crops, application rate of chemical fertilizer, total power of agri-cultural machinery, and food price index.(3) Due to the differences in growth habits and disaster resistance among various grain crops, multiple input factors had different influences on food production under the same growth environmental conditions .( 4) From a macroscopic perspective, natural factors had a small impact on food production, while economic stimulus and technological development had different impacts on various food crops .%根据2005～2014年安徽省16个地级市的农业生产统计资料，从自然、科技和经济3个宏观层面选取10个影响因素指标，利用面板数据模型对粮食及其所包含的稻谷、小麦、玉米、薯类和大豆5类主要粮食作物产量的影响因素进行了分析。结果表明：（1）安徽省近10年的粮食产量以75．831万t／年的趋势逐年递增，平均年增长率3．06％；（2）对安徽省粮食产量产生显著影响的因素有受灾面积、粮食播种面积、化肥施用量、农业机械总动力、粮食价格指数；（3）由于不同粮食作物的生长习性、抗灾能力等存在差异，在相同生长环境下受到多种投入要素的影响程度也不同；（4）从宏观层面来看，自然因素对粮食产量的影响较小，而不同作物受经济刺激和科技发展的影响程度存在差异。