As the commercial aircraft industry attempts to improve airplane fuel efficiency by shifting from aluminum to composites (reinforced plastics), there is a concern that composite processing equipment is not mature enough to meet increasing demand and that delivery delays and loss of high tech jobs could result. The research questions focused on the evolution of composite placement machines, improvement of machine functionality by equipment vendors, and the probability of new inventions helping to avoid production shortfalls. An extensive review of the literature found no studies that addressed these issues. Since the early twentieth century, exploratory case study of pivotal technological advances has been an accepted means of performing historic analysis and furthering understanding of rapidly changing marketplaces and industries. This qualitative case study investigated evolution of automated placement equipment by (a) codifying and mapping patent data (e.g., claims and functionality descriptions), (b) triangulating archival data (i.e., trade literature, vender Web sites, and scholarly texts), and (c) interviewing expert witnesses. An industry-level sensitivity model developed by the author showed that expanding the vendor base and increasing the number of performance enhancing inventions will most likely allow the industry to make the transition from aluminum to composites without schedule delays. This study will promote social change by (a) advancing individual and community knowledge (e.g., teaching modules for students, practitioners, and professional society members) and (b) providing an empirical model that will help in the understanding and projection of next generation composite processing equipment demand and productivity output.
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