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Epidemic Dynamics of Metapopulation Models.

机译:种群模型的流行病动态。

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摘要

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases can help public health officials to make decisions related to the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks. However, over or under estimations of the morbidity of any infectious disease can be problematic.;Therefore, public health officials can always make use of better models to study the potential implication of their decisions and strategies prior to their implementation.;Previous work focuses on the mechanisms underlying the different epidemic waves observed in Mexico during the novel swine origin influenza H1N1 pandemic of 2009 and showed extensions of classical models in epidemiology by adding temporal variations in different parameters that are likely to change during the time course of an epidemic, such as, the influence of media, social distancing, school closures, and how vaccination policies may affect different aspects of the dynamics of an epidemic.;This current work further examines the influence of different factors considering the randomness of events by adding stochastic processes to meta-population models. I present three different approaches to compare different stochastic methods by considering discrete and continuous time. For the continuous time stochastic modeling approach I consider the continuous-time Markov chain process using forward Kolmogorov equations, for the discrete time stochastic modeling I consider stochastic differential equations using Wiener's increment and Poisson point increments, and also I consider the discrete-time Markov chain process. These first two stochastic modeling approaches will be presented in a one city and two city epidemic models using, as a base, our deterministic model. The last one will be discussed briefly on a one city SIS and SIR-type model.
机译:传染病的数学模型可以帮助公共卫生官员做出与减轻流行病爆发有关的决策。但是,对任何传染病的发病率进行高估或低估都可能会引起问题。因此,公共卫生官员始终可以使用更好的模型来研究其决策和策略在实施之前的潜在影响。墨西哥在2009年发生的新型猪源流感H1N1大流行期间观察到的不同流行波的潜在机制,并通过在不同的参数中添加可能随时间变化的不同参数的时间变化来显示流行病学经典模型的扩展,例如,媒体的影响,社会疏远,学校停课以及疫苗接种政策如何影响流行病动态的不同方面。本工作通过将随机过程添加到元数据中,考虑事件的随机性,进一步研究了不同因素的影响。人口模型。我提出了三种不同的方法,通过考虑离散时间和连续时间来比较不同的随机方法。对于连续时间随机建模方法,我考虑使用正向Kolmogorov方程的连续时间Markov链过程,对于离散时间随机建模,我考虑使用Wiener增量和Poisson点增量的随机微分方程,并且还考虑离散时间Markov链处理。将使用我们的确定性模型作为基础,在一个城市和两个城市的流行病模型中介绍这头两种随机建模方法。最后一个将在一个城市的SIS和SIR类型模型中进行简要讨论。

著录项

  • 作者

    Cruz-Aponte, Maytee.;

  • 作者单位

    Arizona State University.;

  • 授予单位 Arizona State University.;
  • 学科 Health Sciences Epidemiology.;Mathematics.;Biology General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 237 p.
  • 总页数 237
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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