EDUCATIONAL FUTURES: IMPLICATIONS FOR OCCUPATIONAL EDUCATION.

摘要

Statement of the Problem. This study was designed to determine possible futures for occupational education in the year 2000 and beyond by (a) utilizing the modified Delphi technique with a panel of experts and (b) conducting a review of the related literature on educational futures.;Research Procedures. This study is a conjecture about occupational education in the year 2000 and beyond. A potential panel on educational futures was selected and asked to participate in three rounds of a modified Delphi survey. In the first mailing (Round 1), the Select Panel was asked to complete open-ended statements for each of six identified components of an occupational education system including: curriculum, delivery processes, facilitators/personnel, learners, learning environments, and support services. In Round 2 the panel was asked to read the synthesized statements regarding futuristic trends, estimate how likely the changes were to occur, estimate the years the changes would most likely occur by using five-year intervals starting with the year 2000, and indicate the impact of the changes on occupational education. For Round 3 each panel member was instructed to compare his/her responses with the average group responses and was encouraged to reach consensus. The data was analyzed and the results of the study were prepared.;Results of the Study. The 47 trends forecasted by the Select Panel were grouped into two categories: (1) Trends Forecasted by Probability and Date of Occurrence and (2) Trends Forecasted by Impact on Occupational Education and Date of Occurrence. In the first category, forty-one of the forty-seven futuristic trends were estimated to probably occur by the year 2000, and the remaining six beyond the year 2000. Five of those trends were forecasted to probably occur by 2005. One trend was forecasted to probably occur by 2010.;Thirty-three trends were estimated to have an almost certain chance (90% chance or greater) or high probablity (60% to 89% chance) of occurring. Twelve trends were estimated to have an even chance (40% to 59% chance) of occurring and only two trends were estimated to have a low probability of occurrence. There were no trends identified by the Select Panel as having almost no likelihood of occurring.;Purpose of the Study. The primary purpose of this study is to provide educators and administrators in occupational education with alternative images of the future. By anticipating major changes in the occupational education system in the year 2000 and beyond, long-range planning will be facilitated.;In the secondary category, there was one trend identified as having a very strong positive impact on occupational education. Thirty-five trends were identified as having a strong positive impact, and nine trends were forecasted to have a mild positive impact. One trend was identified as having a mild negative impact, and one was identified as having a strong negative impact. There were no trends identified as having no impact or a very strong negative impact.;Conclusions. Conclusions are based on the results of this study where there is an almost certain chance (90% chance or greater) or high probability (60% to 89% chance) that a trend will occur. The conclusions are presented according to the questions set forth in the statement of the problem regarding the occupational education system in the year 2000 and beyond. What will be the major changes in the: (a) curriculum component? (b) delivery processes component? (c) facilitators/personnel component? (d) learners component? (e) learning environments component? (f) support services component?