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A nonlinear probability analysis of the decision to insure municipal bonds.

机译:担保市政债券决策的非线性概率分析。

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摘要

This dissertation research investigates the occurrence of insured municipal debt, and it attempts to model the insurance decision. The sample used is Louisiana municipal bonds issued in 1990 and 1991. In addition to using a different sample of bonds than has been done, more recent data is studied, a wider variety of security types are included, a different method of studying net benefits of insurance is used, and probability modelling is utilized.;The probability analysis results found several significant variables that help to explain the insurance purchase. These are the dollar amount of the issue, the term of the bond, and per capita levels of issuer debt, revenue, and expenditure. Additional determinants of the insurance decision were sought by including political variables. Since none of the variables tested were significant, more research needs to be done to ascertain whether other factors serve to affect the issuance of insured debt.;Finally, a comparison of results of the two analyses is made to gain additional insight into the portion of bond issues for which the insurance decision cannot be explained with the existing methodology and variables. Three factors seem to be present in issues that were misassigned in both exercises. These factors are relatively large premiums, use of net interest costs, and decreasing coupon payments.;The results of an analysis of the net benefits of insurance for the Louisiana sample are similar to those conducted in the past, but with additional insight gained. Scrutiny of the specific bonds for which negative net benefits are estimated indicates the size of the premium and use of net interest costs as possible influences. This finding deserves further investigation.
机译:本论文研究调查了被保险市政债务的发生,并试图对保险决策进行建模。所使用的样本是1990年和1991年发行的路易斯安那市政债券。除了使用与以往不同的债券样本外,还研究了更多最新数据,包括了更广泛的证券类型,以及研究证券净收益的不同方法。使用保险,并使用概率模型。;概率分析结果发现了几个重要变量,这些变量有助于解释保险购买。这些是发行的美元金额,债券的期限以及发行人债务,收入和支出的人均水平。通过包括政治变量来寻求保险决定的其他决定因素。由于测试的变量均不显着,因此需要做更多的研究以确定其他因素是否会影响保险债务的发行。最后,对这两种分析的结果进行比较,以进一步了解保险债务的构成部分。无法用现有方法和变量来解释其保险决定的债券问题。在两个练习中都未分配的问题中似乎存在三个因素。这些因素是相对较大的保费,净利息成本的使用以及减少的息票支付。路易斯安那州样本的保险净收益分析结果与过去相似,但是获得了更多的见识。对估计为负净收益的特定债券的审查表明溢价的大小和净利息成本的使用可能产生的影响。这一发现值得进一步调查。

著录项

  • 作者

    Williams, Louise C.;

  • 作者单位

    University of New Orleans.;

  • 授予单位 University of New Orleans.;
  • 学科 Finance.;Urban planning.;Public administration.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1995
  • 页码 97 p.
  • 总页数 97
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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