Prediction of graduation and nongraduation of Mississippi State University transfer students utilizing pre-enrollment information.

摘要

The purpose of this study was to determine if pre-enrollment information of transfer students to Mississippi State University (MSU) can be used to predict future graduates and nongraduates. The research population for this ex post facto study was students who transferred to the university from August 1992 through July 1993 who had 12 or more semester credit hours from other institutions accepted by MSU at the time of transfer. The research population contained 1,336 students. Graduation status was determined as of December 12, 1997. Data for this study were collected from the MSU student record database. Of the 1,336 cases considered in this study, 52% (n = 699) obtained four-year degrees from the university within the given time period, 48% (n = 637) did not.; The eight independent variables examined in this study were (a) transfer student age, (b) race, (c) sex, (d) number of credits accepted by the university at the time of transfer, (e) transfer grade point average (GPA), (f) possession of an associate degree, (g) source campus type, and (h) college of selected major at the university. To organize presentation of the research findings these eight independent variables were placed into three groups. These three groups were background variables (a, b, c), academic integration variables (d, e, f), and environmental pull variables (g, h).; Discriminant function analysis of the research data correctly classified 64.75% of the research population (n = 865). Given a desired classification accuracy of 75%, it was determined that the discriminant function model proposed in this study did not warrant further consideration using the eight independent variables selected for this study.; Individual independent variable analysis of the research data found statistically significant differences between graduates and nongraduates for transfer GPA, number of transfer credits accepted, possession of an associate degree, college of declared major and race. Students with higher grade point averages were more likely to graduate as were those who transferred to the university with a greater number of credits. Students who possessed an associate degree before transferring to the university and students who transferred into the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences were also more likely to graduate. Minority students had a significantly lower graduation rate than Caucasian students. Graduates were not significantly different from nongraduates as to age, sex, or source campus type.