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Option pricing and higher order moments of the risk-neutral probability density function

机译:风险中性概率密度函数的期权定价和高阶矩

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摘要

For over twenty years the Black-Scholes model has been the pre-eminent model used by financial economists and option market participants for pricing derivatives. The model assumes that the log-return of an asset over any time period is normally distributed conditional on the current asset price and that log-returns over equal non-overlapping periods of time are iid. Research has shown that both of these assumptions are incorrect. This dissertation develops option pricing models that are consistent with these observed characteristics of asset returns.;In Chapter Two an Edgeworth expansion is used to approximate the risk-neutral pdf of the log return of an asset. Using a kth order Edgeworth expansion, which allows for skewness and fat-tails, an explicit formula for pricing European options is developed, of which the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is a special case.;In Chapter Three estimates of the implied risk-neutral pdf of the log-return on the S&P 500 index are obtained using high frequency prices of S&P 500 index futures and options written on the futures. Risk-neutral pdfs are estimated for each option maturity on every trading day during the time period 1990 to 1996. Consistent with previous findings, the results show that the implied conditional risk-neutral pdfs are left-skewed and leptokurtic. Further, the data suggest that daily log-returns are not iid through time.;In Chapter Four, a general autoregressive conditional density model is estimated for daily log-returns on the S&P 500 index. This model allows for skewness and kurtosis in the conditional actual log-returns and autoregressive conditional skewness, in addition to autoregressive conditional volatility. The success of this model for capturing the behavior of actual log-returns leads us to develop a similar model for risk-neutral log-returns.;Parameters of the dynamic process for one-week risk-neutral log-returns are obtained using a time series of prices of S&P 500 index futures and options for the period 1990 to 1996. The estimated weekly risk-neutral pdf is found to be left-skewed, exhibit volatility clustering and persistence, asymmetric volatility, fat tails and clustering and persistence in the third central moment. The dynamic model is found to outperform the Black-Scholes model out-of-sample.
机译:二十多年来,Black-Scholes模型一直是金融经济学家和期权市场参与者用来对衍生产品定价的卓越模型。该模型假设资产在任何时间段内的对数收益率均以当前资产价格为正态分布,并且假设在相等的非重叠时间段内的对数收益率是相等的。研究表明这两个假设都是错误的。本文开发了与资产收益率的这些特征相一致的期权定价模型。第二章,利用Edgeworth展开来近似资产对数收益率的风险中性pdf。使用允许偏斜和胖尾的k阶Edgeworth展开,开发了一个明确的欧式期权定价公式,其中Black-Scholes期权定价公式是一个特例。在第三章中,隐含风险的估计为-标普500指数的对数回报的中性pdf是使用标普500指数期货的高频价格和期货期权而获得的。估计1990年至1996年期间每个交易日每个期权到期的风险中性pdf。与先前的发现一致,结果表明,隐含的条件性风险中性pdf是左偏斜的和leptokurtic。此外,数据还表明,每日对数回报并非随时间变化。在第四章​​中,对标准普尔500指数的每日对数回报估算了一个一般的自回归条件密度模型。除了自回归条件的波动性之外,该模型还允许条件实际对数返回中的偏度和峰度以及自回归条件偏度。该模型成功捕获了实际对数对数的行为,促使我们开发了一个风险中性对数回报的类似模型。风险中性对数对数回报的动态过程参数是使用时间获得的标普500指数期货和期权在1990年至1996年期间的一系列价格。估计的每周风险中性pdf偏左,在第三种中表现出波动聚类和持久性,非对称波动性,肥尾和聚类和持久性中心时刻。发现动态模型优于样本外的Black-Scholes模型。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kochard, Lawrence Edward.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Virginia.;

  • 授予单位 University of Virginia.;
  • 学科 Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1999
  • 页码 182 p.
  • 总页数 182
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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