Elderly migration and risk factors of the gray gold or gray peril.

摘要

Several Oregon counties have received a noticeable influx of interstate elderly in recent years, and the popular press has from time to time offered speculation about the possible effects of such movement. The 1990 South Coast Seniors Needs Assessment report warned that counties receiving in-migration of retirees may in time become burdened with expenditures targeted to an aging population. Others are more optimistic and point out possible benefits from in-migration of elderly. These opposing predictions are the "gray peril" and "gray gold" scenarios.;Both optimistic and pessimistic predictions regarding an influx of elderly assume that such an influx will have predictable demographic effects which will convert to effects on public revenues and expenditures. This paper compares counties receiving a large influx to those not receiving such an influx in terms of change in elderly population both numerically and as a fraction of the total population, prevalence of disability among elderly, prevalence of poverty, mean income, and receipt of public assistance by the elderly. When data permits, elderly are compared by migration status (interstate movers are compared to those who moved across counties, those who moved within counties, and those who did not move) within individual counties in paired-samples analysis. Elderly within groups of counties were compared by ANOVA both overall and by residence status when possible. The younger-old (60--74) and older-old (75 and older) are analyzed separately when the data allows.;The data analysis found statistically significant difference between nonmovers and those who moved in terms of poverty and disability, but such difference was absent between those who made moves of varying length (interstate, intercounty, intracounty). Statistically significant difference was for the most part not found for overall prevalence at the county level for the variables analyzed, indicating limited influence for migration in altering overall patterns. At the same time, variation was observed among individual counties that points out interesting directions for further research.