The political economy of protection: Theory and the Chilean experience.

摘要

The literature on the political economy of trade policy from economics and political science attempts to explain why some countries have higher levels of protection than others, why this level changes over time, and why certain industries within countries are afforded higher levels of protection than other industries. After reviewing the existing literature from both disciplines by differentiating work that examines the determinants of the level and the structure of protection across countries and over time in chapter one, the rest of the dissertation focuses on the experience of Chile since 1810 to the present. The dissertation combines historical and political analyses with econometric methods for studying the determinants of trade policies in this country.; The main results from the historical analysis and the econometric exercises indicate that Chile's turning point from a liberal economy to a protectionist trade regime occurred prior to the Great Depression, probably after the First World War. The dissertation provides a new categorization of Chilean historical periods that fits the historical and statistical evidence better than previous publications by Chilean and foreign analysts. The main determinants of trade policy changes in Chile during 1830–1995 were the rate of economic growth, the government's fiscal balance, the trade balance, the share of manufacturing employment, import penetration, and inflation. The Liberal Era (1860–1896) and the Pinochet Dictatorship (1974–1989) were characterized by a higher probability of trade policy liberalization than during other periods of time in Chilean history, after controlling for the impact of several economic variables. The period of intense unilateral trade liberalization during 1974–2000 was characterized by the use of various compensation mechanisms that helped maintain political support for the trade reforms even under the dictatorial political regime. The dissertation speculates about the future of Chilean trade policy in the final chapter.