High school dropout is a major problem facing US Schools. Although the dropout literature identifies predictor variables, few studies have examined the interrelatedness of these variables. This study used longitudinal data from the National Education Longitudinal Study and from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to examine the following questions: (1) What is the predictive strength of the school, family, and individual composite variables relative to frequency of school dropout and how are they interrelated? (2) Does the socioeconomic status of a student negate the predictive power of race of a student on school dropout? and (3) What is the predictive strength of the school, family, and individual composite variables relative to retention and how are they interrelated? Data were analyzed via structural equation modeling. Results indicated that Race and Ethnicity did not have a significant effect on Retention once the variables of SES, Family Composition, and Sex were controlled for. Additionally, the predictive variables accounted for 3.3% of the variance in retention based on the ELS data and 19.9% of the variance based on the NELS data. Lastly, the predictor variables accounted for 8.3% of the variance in school dropout based on the ELS data set and 72.5% of school dropout based on the variance in the NELS data set. Limitations, future research, and policy implications are discussed.
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