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Essays on financial crises and IMF interventions.

机译:关于金融危机和基金组织干预的论文。

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摘要

In this dissertation we examine the determinants and consequences of financial crises. In part 1 we ask: what causes some financial crises to produce a sudden collapse in economic activity, how common are such collapses, and what are the mechanisms that lead to their occurrence? Concentrating on Calvo's 'sudden-stop' syndrome---i.e. the reversal of capital flows that accompanies some crises, we show that sudden stop crises lead to dramatic contractions of the economy. Output developments in countries experiencing a currency crisis without a capital flow reversal are shown to be radically different from those of sudden-stops. Evidence is presented on the magnitude of output loss, the duration of recessions and on investment-credit channels that lead to such dynamics.; Part 2 looks into the behavior of the IMF. The focus is on "moral hazard," created when the IMF provides bailouts to countries that face a BOP crisis. Two central questions are posed: is moral hazard observable in the data; and, if it is, what is its magnitude? We search for evidence that the unprecedented bailouts of the last decade have changed the investing environment in such a way that international investors started believing that their investments were insured. Our events-study is based on IMF-led events identified as both important and unexpected, such as the bailout loan for Mexico in 1995 and the absence of one for Russia in 1998. Our conclusion is negative: no such change in the moral hazard effect was observed. We demonstrate that events surrounding the out-of-sample Argentinean default (Dec. 2001) support our finding.; Part 3 examines what is perceived as one of the main culprits in the occurrence of banking crises: financial liberalization. If liberalization is accompanied by insufficient prudential supervision of the banking sector, it will result in excessive risk taking by financial intermediaries and a subsequent crisis. Having evaluated the empirical validity of this hypothesis, we conclude that such a development is, at worse, only a medium run threat to the health of the banking sector. We find that a more immediate danger is the loss of monopoly power that liberalization typically entails.
机译:在本文中,我们研究了金融危机的决定因素和后果。在第1部分中,我们问:是什么原因导致某些金融危机导致经济活动突然崩溃,这种崩溃有多普遍,以及导致危机发生的机制是什么?专注于卡尔沃的``突然停止''综合症-即伴随着某些危机的资本流动逆转,我们表明突然停止的危机导致经济急剧收缩。事实证明,经历货币危机而没有资本流动逆转的国家的产出发展与突然停止的发展有根本的不同。提供了有关产出损失的规模,衰退持续时间以及导致这种动态的投资信贷渠道的证据。第2部分研究了IMF的行为。当IMF向面临国际收支危机的国家提供救助时,便产生了“道德风险”。提出了两个主要问题:数据中是否可以观察到道德风险?如果是的话,其幅度是多少?我们寻找证据表明,过去十年来空前的救助计划改变了投资环境,国际投资者开始相信他们的投资已经投保。我们的事件研究是基于IMF主导的事件,这些事件被确定为重要和意料之外的事件,例如1995年向墨西哥提供的救助贷款和1998年向俄罗斯提供的无援助贷款。我们的结论是负面的:道德风险影响没有这种变化被观测到。我们证明了围绕样本超额阿根廷违约(2001年12月)的事件支持了我们的发现。第三部分研究了银行危机发生的主要罪魁祸首之一:金融自由化。如果自由化伴随着对银行业审慎监管的不足,将导致金融中介机构承担过多的风险,并随后引发危机。在评估了该假设的经验有效性之后,我们得出结论,更糟糕的是,这种发展只是对银行业健康的中期威胁。我们发现,更为直接的危险是自由化通常带来的垄断能力的丧失。

著录项

  • 作者

    Noy, Ilan.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Santa Cruz.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Santa Cruz.;
  • 学科 Economics General.; Business Administration Banking.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2003
  • 页码 161 p.
  • 总页数 161
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学 ; 金融、银行 ;
  • 关键词

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