Development and application of a three-dimensional probabilistic wind-borne debris trajectory model.

摘要

This research presents a probabilistic debris trajectory model adapted from current 6-degree-of-freedom (6-DoF) deterministic models, in which the aleatoric (inherent) uncertainty is explicitly considered in the proposed probabilistic model. While the inherent randomness in the debris flight trajectory is irreducible due to the wind turbulence, variation in wind direction, gustiness of the wind event and so forth, the proposed probabilistic model seeks to address these uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulations with the appropriate statistical distributions applied to the governing equations of motion of the debris. Verification of the probabilistic debris trajectory model is performed through an analytical and visual comparison of the simulated data to wind tunnel test data. Good agreement is observed between the simulated and the wind tunnel test debris landing locations, thus confirming the applicability of the probabilistic wind-borne debris model.;A preliminary study regarding the current wind-borne debris impact methodology has illustrated that there is a significant increase in the total kinetic energy of debris impact when the dynamic parameters of the debris trajectory, translational and rotational, are considered; therefore, the proposed probabilistic model not only provides an effective method for predicting the variation of debris trajectories in a three-dimensional (3D) space, which is imperative when performing regional building envelope impact risk, but it is also capable of providing guidance on debris impact protection.