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Econometric essays on generalized empirical likelihood, long-memory time series, and volatility.

机译:关于广义经验似然,长记忆时间序列和波动性的计量经济学文章。

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摘要

This dissertation has three independent chapters, Chapters 2, 3, and 4. Chapter 2 introduces similar test statistics for the structural parameter in a linear model. The tests are based on Generalized Empirical Likelihood (GEL) techniques. Chapter 3 is concerned with the bias-reduced estimation of the long-memory parameter in a long-memory time series. The final chapter introduces a flexible approach to combine econometric models. The approach can be viewed as a generalization to the Markov-switching literature. As an empirical application, the model is applied to the prediction of conditional variance in stock market time series.; Chapter 2 introduces two new statistics that can be used to test simple hypotheses involving the structural parameter vector in a linear single equation instrumental variables model. The finite sample size properties of tests based on classical statistics such as the Wald or likelihood ratio statistic depend crucially on the strength or weakness of identification. The main feature of the new statistics is that they have correct finite sample sizes independent of the strength or weakness of identification. The statistics are based on GEL techniques. The first statistic equals the criterion function of the GEL estimator and has a likelihood ratio interpretation. The second statistic is given as a quadratic form in the first order condition of the GEL estimator and has an interpretation as a Lagrange-multiplier statistic.; Chapter 3 proposes a new bias-reduced semiparametric estimator of the long-memory parameter. Existing semiparametric estimators such as the Geweke and Porter-Hudak estimator, approximate the short-run component of the spectrum by a constant around the origin. This can result in a considerable finite sample bias. The new estimator reduces the bias by replacing the constant in the approximation by an even polynomial. Under weak assumptions, it is shown that the rate of convergence to zero of the asymptotic RMSE is faster than the rate for the GPH estimator.; Chapter 4 introduces a general method to link variable length Markov chain models for discrete time series with real-valued time series models. The resulting model class, called Dynamic Combination of Models (DCM), incorporates the idea of model mixing and model switching. The transition probabilities for the regime in the next period depend on a possibly long history. Unlike the Markov-switching literature the length of the history is not pinned down, but estimated together with the parameters of the model. As an empirical application, a particular GARCH(1,1) DCM is used for the prediction of the conditional variance in stock market time series.
机译:本文共分三章,分别是第二章,第三章和第四章。第二章介绍了线性模型中结构参数的相似检验统计量。这些测试基于广义经验似然(GEL)技术。第3章讨论了长内存时间序列中长内存参数的偏倚减少估计。最后一章介绍了一种结合计量经济学模型的灵活方法。该方法可以看作是马尔可夫交换文献的概括。作为经验应用,该模型可用于预测股市时间序列中的条件方差。第2章介绍了两个新的统计量,可用于检验涉及线性单方程工具变量模型中结构参数向量的简单假设。基于经典统计量(例如Wald或似然比统计量)的测试的有限样本量属性主要取决于识别的优缺点。新统计的主要特征是它们具有正确的有限样本量,与识别的优缺点无关。统计数据基于GEL技术。第一个统计量等于GEL估计量的标准函数,并且具有似然比解释。第二个统计量在GEL估计量的一阶条件下以二次形式给出,并具有拉格朗日乘数统计量的解释。第3章提出了一种新的减少长记忆参数偏差的半参数估计器。现有的半参数估计器(例如Geweke和Porter-Hudak估计器)通过原点附近的常数来近似频谱的短期分量。这会导致相当大的有限样本偏差。新的估算器通过用近似多项式替换近似值中的常数来减少偏差。在弱假设下,表明渐近RMSE的收敛速度为零快于GPH估计器的速度。第4章介绍了将离散时间序列的变长马尔可夫链模型与实值时间序列模型相链接的通用方法。生成的模型类称为模型动态组合(DCM),其中包含了模型混合和模型切换的思想。下一时期该政权的过渡概率取决于可能的悠久历史。与马尔可夫切换文献不同,历史记录的长度不是固定的,而是与模型的参数一起估算的。作为经验应用,特定的GARCH(1,1)DCM用于预测股市时间序列中的条件方差。

著录项

  • 作者

    Guggenberger, Patrik.;

  • 作者单位

    Yale University.;

  • 授予单位 Yale University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2003
  • 页码 144 p.
  • 总页数 144
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;
  • 关键词

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