Le vieillissement de la population en Chine et au Canada: Deux voies pour une meme destination? (French text).

摘要

We entered in an era of the globalization of demographic aging. The rise of aging in the developing countries and the intensification of aging in the developed countries will characterize this era. Few case studies make a comparison of the ageing of the north and the south, which is nevertheless important for improving our knowledge about this demographic phenomenon, for example, about its diversity, its convergence and its relations with the demographic and socio-economic contexts and policies. This kind of comparative studies is even more significant for the developing countries, since it is useful for them to use the experience of the developed countries as a reference in order to face the challenges of aging, which will be increasingly great in the next decades. The present thesis compares population aging in China (1971--2050) and Canada (1911--2050). Population estimates and projections made by the United Nations for the period 1950--2050, and by Statistics Canada for the period 1911--1950, are the principal data sources. Taking a new approach, this study reveals how these two countries, representing the contrasting contexts of Southern and Northern socioeconomic development and Eastern and Western cultures, achieve the same age transition (with the proportion of persons aged 60 and over in the total population passing from 7% to 30% during the studied periods) through two distinct pathways. This thesis is composed of four chapters. The first chapter examines population aging in China. Revealing a new image of aging, this chapter indicates the potential benefits of drawing a parallel between population aging in China and Canada. The second chapter compares the aging process in the two countries, focusing on its forms and stages. The comparison of demographic changes while population is aging, which constitute the dynamics of the socioeconomic impacts of aging, is the subject of the third chapter. The final chapter compares the effect of family planning in China and of immigration in Canada on their population aging. This chapter examines the experience of two important social laboratories for the demography of aging with regard to the influence of population policies on population aging. Before concluding this study, comments on the data used and on the limits of the results were made. In conclusion, the thesis assesses the similarities and dissimilarities of the aging process in China and Canada. Four assumptions concerning the typology, the comparability, the diversity and the convergence of aging are formulated from these results. The confirmation of these hypotheses, as yet to be done, opens new avenues of research for the demography of aging.