A predictive modeling and decision making tool for food safety and defense.

摘要

One of the missions of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is to reduce the risk of foodborne illness in the U.S. due to unintentional and intentional contamination of the food supply. Since the events of 9/11, and the anthrax attack of 2001, these agencies have put significant efforts toward anticipating intentional threats and developing response strategies to possible attacks on the food supply. Technologies designed to enhance capabilities for early detection of hazards, rapid identification of agents and implicated foods, intervention and containment methodologies, and strategies designed to address remediation of affected infrastructure have been identified as subject areas for critical research. Further, to respond to an actual event, authorities must have meaningful and timely information on which to base decisions. FDA, USDA, and DHS have recognized that modeling tools designed to rapidly evaluate "what if scenarios" that predict outcomes and can facilitate ongoing analysis in support of decision making, could provide a crucial tool in the case of an actual event. The focus of this thesis was to conceptualize and describe PC-based modeling tools that could dynamically identify the quantity and location of contaminated product in the supply chain, estimate consumer exposure to select agents, project the likely extent of human illness and death, and delineate appropriate methods of intervention and the impact of a selected intervention on the public's well being, and quantify the economic consequences of the event to industry and to the public at large. To illustrate the value of such a model, customer and shipping data were collected from a produce supplier for head lettuce. Additional distribution information was gathered from retail and wholesale distributors. Consumption information was provided by a national market research firm and disease morbidity and mortality information was either found in the literature or provided by clinical experts. The development of this system would support a rapid and effective response by federal agencies and serve as a deterrent to any assault on the food supply.