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Political party platforms, control of executive and legislative branches and stock market performance.

机译:政党平台,对行政和立法部门的控制以及股市表现。

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摘要

This research addressed the relationships between economic platforms of a president and the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA). Previous research suggested that the DJIA Index performed better under Democratic administrations because the Democratic Party favored government spending programs. Support for the "Democratic theory" uses Keynesian economics to suggest that increases in government spending will work through a multiplier to increase the gross domestic (national) product and consumption.; Others have suggested that the Republican Party platform favors a strong economy because the Republicans are the party of business. The thinking is that Republican programs tend to encourage business expansion and create jobs, and will raise the gross domestic product and consumer consumption which, in turn, will create wage-paying jobs and more consumer consumption.; Most academic research does not find significant difference in the relationship between the DJIA and the party of the president. The weaknesses and the conflicting conclusions in previous research suggest a need for a more rigorous and, perhaps, a better designed research effort.; This research cannot possible fill all the needs in this topic. However, it does introduce quarterly time series for more complete evaluation. The time period for this research, from the end of World War II in 1945 through 2004 is a period of relatively stable US involvement in the multinational trading environment. The research introduces a concept of the strength of a presidency in terms of his party's control over the House and Senate, and his mandate as measured by his leadership qualities (ability to exploit a mandate from the electorate and majority in the Congress).; The research, and follow-on research on the topic, can improve the understanding of the nature of a president's mandate and the importance of the political and economic skills of the president and his appointees.; There are significant relationships between several of the economic variables and the DJIA, probably due to a strong trend. However, the first difference series neutralizes the trend and the number of correlated variables decreases sharply. Since investor decisions are based on marginal, or rate of change data, the use of first differences is considered a better measure for this research.; A significant increase is found in the rate of change characteristics of many of the time series in the early 1970s. These increases are probably not sustainable in the long run. The need for research in this area is evident. Presidents and Presidential candidates are under pressure from many stakeholders when developing and executing an economic platform, compromises are necessary, and some decisions must be made quickly as political campaigns develop.; A better understanding of the inter-workings of economic policies, environmental changes and constraints on the ability of a president to implement a viable economic platform is important to all concerned.
机译:这项研究解决了总统的经济平台与道琼斯工业平均指数(DJIA)表现之间的关系。先前的研究表明,DJIA指数在民主党政府的领导下表现更好,因为民主党偏爱政府支出计划。对“民主理论”的支持使用凯恩斯主义经济学来表明,政府支出的增加将通过乘数来增加国内(国民)生产总值和消费。其他人则认为,共和党平台有利于强劲的经济,因为共和党是工党。认为共和党的计划倾向于鼓励业务扩展和创造就业机会,并会提高国内生产总值和消费者消费,从而反过来会创造有薪工作和更多的消费者消费。大多数学术研究并没有发现道琼斯工业党与总统政党之间的关系有显着差异。先前研究中的弱点和矛盾的结论表明,需要更严格的,也许是设计更好的研究工作。这项研究不可能满足该主题的所有需求。但是,它确实引入了季度时间序列以进行更完整的评估。从1945年第二次世界大战结束到2004年,这项研究的时期是美国相对稳定地参与跨国贸易环境的时期。这项研究引入了一个总统职位的力量概念,即该党对众议院和参议院的控制权,以及根据他的领导才能(可以利用选民和国会多数派成员的职权)衡量的职权范围。有关该主题的研究和后续研究可以增进对总统任职性质和总统及其任命者政治和经济技能的重要性的理解。可能由于强劲的趋势,一些经济变量与道琼斯工业平均指数之间存在显着的关系。但是,第一个差异序列抵消了趋势,相关变量的数量急剧减少。由于投资者的决定基于边际数据或变化率数据,因此使用第一差异被认为是进行本研究的更好方法。在1970年代初期,许多时间序列的变化率特征均出现了显着提高。从长远来看,这些增长可能是不可持续的。在这一领域的研究需求是显而易见的。在发展和执行经济平台时,总统和总统候选人受到许多利益相关者的压力,必须做出妥协,并且随着政治运动的发展必须迅速做出一些决定。对所有相关人士而言,更好地理解经济政策的相互作用,环境变化以及对总统实施可行的经济平台的能力的制约都是重要的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Chayanuwat, Piya.;

  • 作者单位

    Nova Southeastern University.;

  • 授予单位 Nova Southeastern University.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.; Business Administration Management.; Political Science General.
  • 学位 D.B.A.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 113 p.
  • 总页数 113
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财政、金融;贸易经济;政治理论;
  • 关键词

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