Policy and methodological implications of a coastal urban growth prediction model (South Carolina).

摘要

Policy and decision makers desire information on past, current and even predicted land use patterns in order to allocate resources for transportation networks, water and sewer infrastructure, zoning changes and a host of other land related factors in order to manage the growth of neighborhoods, municipalities, and counties. Urban growth predictive models are becoming an effective tool in the urban planning process and the demand for these tools is ever increasing.; In this dissertation, three methodologies of an urban growth prediction model are presented. The first details the use of a binomial logistic regression model for the prediction of urban growth in the Charleston, SC region. The second takes a micro approach to examine the parcel-based land-use change at the local scale. A spatial multivariate logistic regression model was developed and 24 variables were selected for predicting the possibilities of land-use change for Murrells Inlet, SC. The third study involved developing a multi-layer backpropagation neural network to simulate future land use changes and potential ecological impacts. Those impacts were assessed in terms of loss of vegetation cover, habitat areas, and species richness over the land area that comprises Beaufort County, SC.; Policy considerations regarding the results of the urban growth predictions are as follows. The local level is where the majority of land use decisions are made so municipalities can use modeling results to work more closely with developers to balance growth and fiscal responsibilities and work with other municipalities to coordinate growth impacts. County and State entities develop policies that affect how growth spreads into rural areas. Many of these policies have a certain amount of regulatory authority, which must be carefully used to protect the environment and influence developer decisions. Federal level programs indirectly influence development (DOT, NFIP, EPA, USDA). Federal officials can provide expertise to local entities through research as well as direct funding (community grants, etc.). Finally, state and federal agencies are already using the results of the urban growth models for planning and management. These include NOAA, SCDNR, and SCDHEC as well as NGO's interested in land preservation.