Spatio-Econometric Analysis on Urban Growth and Spatial Planning Performances: Case Study in Guangzhou of PRD, China.

摘要

Urban economic growth has hastened urban spatial expansion since the 1990s in China, and five megacities such as Guangzhou emerged by 2011. The evidence indicates that this growth shows few signs of stopping in the foreseeable future. The ontology and epistemology of Chinese-style urban planning are unfortunately overstretched in terms of the challenges resulting from rapid growth. Urban growth studies have focused on the present achievements of spatial expansion to non-urban areas based on remote sensing data while ignoring the maturely urbanized areas emphasized by urban planning. However, both agglomeration economies and serious urban problems are centralized within the downtown area. Urban sprawl to the non-urban area is a physical consequence of agglomeration economy spillover, and is hence a consequence of spatial intensification and densification spillover. Two kinds of studies have been nearly absent in the realm of Chinese urban planning. The first comprises objective observations on spatial intensification and densification growth patterns and mechanisms in urbanized area. The second comprises reviews and evaluations of planning performance in the urban growth process at the day-to-day administrative level based on objective observations and real-world quantitative evidence. Both types of studies draw forth the objectives of this research.;With an emphasis on the national and local contexts, this dissertation analyzes the spatio-economic mechanisms of urban growth and planning performances in the rapidly growing Guangzhou megacity of the PRD. It is the first exploration targeted at a maturely urbanized inner-city to use a combination of urban construction administration documents, survey maps, socioeconomic statistics, GIS and GWR to observe the spatio-economic mechanisms of urban growth in the vertical and horizontal dimensions for the frantic growth years between 2000 and 2010. Defining the sub-district as a spatial analysis unit, it is also the first study to use massive amounts of digital data to evaluate spatial planning performance at the Zoning level, which is the statutory platform of day-to-day planning administration. This study observed a substantial variety of spatio-economic mechanisms in terms of both vertical and horizontal urban growth across the space. Agglomeration economies dominated the gradient distribution of urban growth no matter what kinds of interventions were imposed according to the planning. Whereas the horizontal growth exhibited significant dependence on government budgetary expenditure, the vertical growth was mainly driven by land supply and greatly dependent on the economic globalization level. The spatial performances of Zoning were effective at protecting historical/ecological interests and guiding the direction of spatial expansion in the city fringe. However, it performed poorly in terms of old town evacuation and new town development. It is surprising that the administration uses planning discretion to shape growth based on a Zoning that has proved impossible to achieve in reality. This study reveals that the traditional Chinese-style planning systems risk urban growth in sustainable development.;This dissertation sheds light on the objective observation and investigation of urban growth mechanisms and planning performances. Its findings could help us better understand urban behavior and make inferences on how socioeconomic processes influence urban growth in different dimensions, which in turn could have considerable effects on planning implementation and spatial performance. Its research achievements could aid in the scientific goal-setting, planning formulation and implementation for better growth management in China's cities. In particular, this dissertation is expected to trigger cross-disciplinary studies on urban behavior and quantitative planning evaluations based on objective observations.;KEY WORDS: Urban growth, urban planning, spatio-econometric mechanism, planning evaluation, spatial performances, growth management, geographically weighted regression.