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Contributions to the analysis of experiments using empirical Bayes techniques.

机译:使用经验贝叶斯技术对实验分析的贡献。

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摘要

This work is composed of two chapters. Both chapters contribute to the field of the analysis of physical experiments by addressing some practical limitations and offering alternatives to the existing methodology. The first chapter primarily addresses the issue of how to estimate the many factorial effects in highly fractionated designs. This is achieved through the application of nearly objective Bayes techniques. These techniques employ a functionally induced prior for the model parameters that have the highly desirable property of incorporating the concepts of effect hierarchy and effect heredity. The second chapter addresses a common "second step" in industrial settings, where often the entire purpose of the experiment is that of finding the optimal factor settings. Optimization experiments require the determination of settings for all of the factors so that a desired response can be achieved. With this as our primary objective, we make the case for an alternative to the standard practice: estimation followed by the use of statistical testing or the application of model selection algorithms, and finally the optimization of some reasonable parsimonious model. Instead, we propose the estimation techniques described in the first chapter in addition to a method of determining significance based on a criteria directly related to the problem at hand.;In the first chapter we focus on the estimation of a large number of effects from an experimental design with only a small number of runs. A full factorial experimental design over even a moderate number of multi-level factors may become infeasible to carry-out since the number of runs increases very rapidly with the number of factors. As a result, highly fractionated designs are employed in practice. However, while now the frequentist analysis may be carried out on this reduced run size, other problems are introduced. For instance, we can only estimate a small subset of the factorial effects. The quantity of effects we can estimate is limited by the degrees of freedom available from this reduced run size. In addition, special techniques must be employed to resolve aliasing.;Bayes techniques have been suggested to address these issues. However, the common hierarchical model Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of experiments is typically encumbered by the daunting task of specifying a prior distribution for the large number of parameters in the linear model. Such a prior should also reflect a belief in the well known experimental design properties of effect hierarchy and effect heredity. Recently it has been proposed that we may specify a functional prior on the underlying transfer function. Through this functional prior, we are able to reduce the task of prior parameter specification to that of only a few hyper-parameters. When carefully selected, this functional prior may also incorporate the properties of effect hierarchy and effect heredity. Previously, this functionally induced prior was developed for two level experiments. Here we have extended these concepts for three and higher level designs. These designs play a very important role in industrial experiments.;The prior specification for multi-level factors requires that an interesting distinction be made between qualitative and quantitative factors. Such a distinction was not necessary in the case of 2-level factors. However, the Gaussian process functional prior assumption that we employ enables us to seamlessly integrate this aspect of multi-level factors in the modeling through the choice of an appropriate class of correlation functions. The application of the methodology is demonstrated with the analysis of two real world examples.;In the second chapter, we focus on what to do next, after estimation, in the case of an optimization experiment. Again, cost constraints may require that an experimental design's run size be kept small. In many such cases, not having enough data may be solely to blame for not being able to conclude an effect's significance via a standard frequentist statistical test. This is particularly troublesome in an optimization experiment, where we wish to determine the optimal settings for all of the factors based on the experimental output. Another problem associated with frequentist hypothesis testing is that the choice of a significance level, alpha, tends to be completely arbitrary and has little connection to the real world problem.;A convenient property of the empirical Bayes estimates obtained in the first chapter is that they already incorporate information about uncertainty through the prior specification and the data. These estimators can be characterized as shrinkage estimates. In this chapter, some special known cases of the empirical Bayes estimator are discussed. For instance, connections are drawn to the so-called James-Stein estimator as well as the Beta Coefficient Method of Taguchi. Discussion of these special cases allow us to fully appreciate the functionally induced prior empirical Bayes estimator that is recommended here for the purpose of analyzing experiments.;After obtaining the empirical Bayes estimates, for an optimization experiment, it may not be desirable to perform additional statistical hypothesis testing or model selection. Instead, we may wish to use these estimates to determine factor settings which balance the goal of optimizing the response with the cost of changing factors from their current settings. Simulation results provide support for the conclusion that the recommended procedure is superior to frequentist estimation and hypothesis testing, with respect to a metric that should be of particular interest in optimization experiments. On average, the proposed techniques dictate factor settings that yield response values closer to our objective. Finally, we complete the analysis of a real world optimization experiment that is first visited in chapter one.
机译:这项工作由两章组成。这两章都通过解决一些实际限制并提供了现有方法的替代方法,为物理实验分析领域做出了贡献。第一章主要讨论如何估计高度细分的设计中的许多阶乘效应。这是通过应用近乎客观的贝叶斯技术实现的。这些技术对模型参数采用了功能先验的方法,该模型参数具有结合效果层次和效果遗传概念的高度期望的特性。第二章介绍了工业设置中的常见“第二步”,其中,实验的整个目的通常是寻找最佳因子设置。优化实验需要确定所有因素的设置,以便可以实现所需的响应。以此为主要目标,我们为标准做法提供了替代方案:估算,然后使用统计测试或模型选择算法,最后是对某些合理的简约模型的优化。取而代之的是,除了基于直接与当前问题相关的标准确定重要性的方法外,我们还提出了第一章中描述的估计技术。在第一章中,我们着重于从一个问题中估计大量影响。仅需少量运行的实验设计。由于运行次数随因子数量的增加而迅速增加,因此即使在中等数量的多级因子上进行完整的因子实验设计也可能变得不可行。结果,在实践中采用了高度细分的设计。但是,尽管现在可以在减小的运行量上进行频频分析,但会引入其他问题。例如,我们只能估算析因效应的一小部分。我们可以估计的效果数量受减小的运行规模的自由度限制。另外,必须采用特殊的技术来解决混叠。建议使用贝叶斯技术来解决这些问题。但是,用于设计和分析实验的通用分层模型贝叶斯方法通常会遇到艰巨的任务,即为线性模型中的大量参数指定先验分布。这样的先验还应该反映对效应层次和效应遗传的众所周知的实验设计特性的信念。最近,有人提议我们可以在基础传递函数上指定一个函数先验。通过此功能先验,我们能够将先验参数指定的任务减少到仅几个超参数的任务。当仔细选择时,该功能先验还可以包括效果等级和效果遗传的属性。以前,此功能性先验技术是为两个级别的实验开发的。在这里,我们将这些概念扩展到三个或更高级别的设计。这些设计在工业实验中起着非常重要的作用。多级因素的现有规范要求在定性和定量因素之间进行有趣的区分。在2级因素的情况下,这种区分是不必要的。但是,我们采用的高斯过程函数先验假设使我们能够通过选择适当的相关函数类别,将多级因子的这一方面无缝地集成到建模中。通过分析两个现实世界的例子来证明该方法的应用。在第二章中,我们着重于在进行优化实验的情况下,在估算之后下一步该做什么。同样,成本限制可能要求实验设计的运行规模保持较小。在许多这样的情况下,没有足够的数据可能只能归咎于无法通过标准的频繁统计检验得出结论的重要性。在优化实验中,这尤其麻烦,因为我们希望根据实验输出为所有因素确定最佳设置。与常识性假设检验相关的另一个问题是,显着性水平α的选择往往是完全任意的,并且与现实世界的问题几乎没有关系。;在第一章中获得的经验贝叶斯估计的一个便利属性是它们已经通过先前的规范和数据纳入了有关不确定性的信息。这些估算器可以表征为收缩估算。在本章中,将讨论经验贝叶斯估计量的一些特殊情况。例如,则与所谓的James-Stein估计器以及Taguchi的Beta系数方法相关。对这些特殊情况的讨论使我们能够充分理解此处推荐的功能诱导的先验贝叶斯估计器,以用于分析实验。在获得经验贝叶斯估计值之后,对于优化实验,可能不希望执行其他统计假设检验或模型选择。取而代之的是,我们可能希望使用这些估计来确定因子设置,这些因子设置将优化响应的目标与从其当前设置更改因子的成本之间取得平衡。仿真结果为以下结论提供了支持:就优化实验中应特别关注的指标而言,推荐的程序优于频繁估计和假设检验。平均而言,提议的技术决定了因子设置,这些因子设置产生的响应值更接近我们的目标。最后,我们完成了对真实世界优化实验的分析,该实验在第一章中首次进行了介绍。

著录项

  • 作者

    Delaney, James Dillon.;

  • 作者单位

    Georgia Institute of Technology.;

  • 授予单位 Georgia Institute of Technology.;
  • 学科 Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 105 p.
  • 总页数 105
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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