Integrating ecology and history to understand historical marine population dynamics: A case study of the California spiny lobster.

摘要

The extent to which exploitation may alter marine life population structure and dynamics is incompletely understood because past research overwhelmingly relies on time series that date back less than 30 years and begin long after the onset of exploitation. This study seeks to partially fill this gap with respect to the California spiny lobster, Panulirus interruptus, by fitting a recently developed Bayesian size-structured model to a newly assembled 120-year historical time series of catch and effort to quantify the effects of fishing on the population's size-structure and dynamics. In a little over a century, as fishing effort increased, the abundance and proportion of large-sized lobster (> 100mm carapace length) progressively declined. Severely reducing the lobster's average lifespan and size has increased the population's short-term variability, potentially diminishing the resilience of the species and the kelp forest ecosystem by compounding the effects of 'fishing down the food web.' This work also demonstrates how integrating nontraditional independent historical sources into ecological studies can help meet challenges typically posed by longer time series, including validating potentially questionable historical data points, corroborating model predictions, verifying the temporal scale of baselines, and identifying alternative anthropogenic causes for the observed or predicted ecological variability. In the lobster case study, historical sources verified an annual catch estimate previously considered an outlier, strongly corroborated the model predictions of fishery-induced lobster population size truncation, and clarified that 1888 was a reasonable pre-exploitation baseline. Further, placing the model reconstruction within the broader historical context of marine conservation over the last 300 years illuminates how lobster conservation tactics based on outdated ecological ideas have facilitated and accelerated the size truncation of the lobster population, and may be undercutting contemporary ecosystem-based conservation measures such as reserves. This approach, which melds contemporary ecological and historical techniques, could be applied to any species to achieve a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the history of the environment.