Effects of One Belt One Road on GDP Growth in Russian Trans-border Regions

摘要

While relations with the West have entered a severe and long-term crisis, Russiaannounced new strategy Turn to The East, the aim of which is to promote economicdevelopment and growth of Siberia and Far East that is impossible without thedevelopment of a common transport infrastructure.The current movement of China tothe West, and Russia-to the East, provides opportunities for creating a new zone ofcooperation and involving the Russian regions into Chinese transport projects of OneBelt One Road Initiative.Thus, this research aimed to study the impact of 'One Belt, OneRoad' and its effects on GDP growth in Russian regions affected by the initiative.Thecalculated forecasts in this study indicate on decreased GDP growth in coming years.Inorder to prove that 'One Belt, One Road' and its infrastructure projects will have animpact on GDP, regressions analyses, including several variables that have an effect onGDP, were conducted.According to the results of this study, extended railways andincreased exports, as well as other factors connected to infrastructure projects prove thatOBOR will have mostly positive effects on GDP growth in the selected regions.

目录

声明

Abstract

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

Table of Contents

Chapter 1．Introduction

1．1 Background of the study

1．2 Problem Statement and Research Objectives

1．3 Research Questions

1．4 Significance of the Research

1．5 Delimitations

1．6 Organization of the study

Chapter 2．Literature Review

2．1 Predictive Analytics and Modelling

2．2 Factors of growth in Economic Development Models

2．3 Impact of Infrastructure on Economic Growth

Chapter 3．China and Russia in the 21st Century

3．1 Overview of OBOR

3．1．1 Major Goals

3．1．2 Prospects and Opportunities related to OBOR

3．1．3 Expected outcomes of OBOR

3．2 Introduction and Background of Russian Strategy Turn to East

3．3 Interface of OBOR Initiative and Turn to East Strategy

3．4 Trans-border and Interregional Cooperation between China and Russia

Chapter 4．Methodology

4．1 Scope of the Study

4．2 Research Paradigms

4．3 Validity and Reliability

4．4 Triangulation

4．5 Staffstieal Methods

4．5．1 Forecast Model

4．5．2 Regression Model

4．5．3 Statistical Tests

4．6 Data Collection

Chapter 5．Empirical Analysis and Results

5．1 Forecast models

5．1．1 Siberian Federal District

5．1．2 Far Eastern Federal District

5．1．3 Siberian vs．Far Eastern Regions

5．2 Regression Models and Spearman’s Correlation Matrix

Chapter 6．Discussion

6．1 Siberian Federal District

6．2 Far Eastern Federal District

6．3 Summary of the models

Chapter 7．Conclusions

7．1 Theoretical and Practical Implications

7．2 Limitations

References

Appendix