江苏省高温热害及其对水稻生产的影响研究

摘要

Rice is the very important grain crop in Jiangsu province,but the agricultural disaster oecurded at the critical crop growth stages,especially the high temperature which happened on rice flowering frequently,which leads to reduce yield severity.It is very important to make security plan and alleviate or avoid the inpacts on rice yield of the high temperature regular of rice. This paper chooses the daily average temperature and daily maximum temperature with 13stations in Jiangsu province,analyzing the regular of the light middle heavy degree of the time and space distribution during the rice heading stage.The modle simulate influence of the high temperature on rice yield with the data of file and meteorology.Also this paper simulates the future stage and yield of different rice type with WGEN and the stage modle.The conclusions are as follows: (1)Over the past 50 years,the high temperature disaster increased during the he critical stage of rice.The three degree high temperature disaster went up with similar inner-annual fluctuation,but the probability of the heavy degree high temperature disaster hapeened slightly with the space distrubition decreased from south to north.The three degree disaster have the same point of discontinuity and they distributed clsed to 1964,1970,1975,1978,1994,2001,2003.2003is a tipical high temperature year. (2)We can see that the rice yield had a better agreement with the observed values.and the relative error between outputs of crop model and observations was within a reasonable range with the ORYZA2000 modle(NRMSE=8.3％).The high temperature simulate shows that with the increase of the high temperature's intensity and duration time,the rice yield also decreased.And the hybrid rice's heat-resisting is better than jing rice. (3)We can conclude that the growth duration of wuyujing 3 shorted nearly 10 days and liangyou 6236 shorted 6days from the future climate simulated by ORYZA 2000.The weather condition between the future and the field experiment of the year 2010 are similar which recurred little difference of liangyou 6326 and made difference of wuyujing.With shortened stage,the product of the two rice type has changed.The yield of the three sowing datas of Wuyujing 3 all declined,and the first sowing data of liangyou6326 declined,the other sowing datas in creased.

目录

文摘

英文文摘

第一章 绪论

1.1 研究背景和意义

1.2 国内外研究进展

1.2.1 长江中下游地区的高温热害发生规律

1.2.2 高温对水稻危害的研究

1.2.3 作物模型的研究

1.2.4 气候变化对水稻产量的影响

1.3 研究内容与技术路线

第二章 江苏省高温热害发生规律分析

2.1 江苏省高温热害指标的选用

2.2 江苏省高温热害的时空分布

2.2.1 时间分布

2.2.2 空间分布

2.3 江苏省近50年的高温热害小波分析

2.4 本章小结

第三章 ORYZA 2000模拟高温对水稻产量的影响

3.1 ORYZA 2000模型基本原理

3.2 资料来源

3.3 模型检验结果与分析

3.3.1 检验水稻有效性的方法

3.3.2 模型参数校正

3.3.3 产量检验

3.4 ORYZA2000模型模拟高温对水稻产量的影响

3.5 本章小结

第四章 未来气候变化对水稻生产的影响

4.1 当前温度和日照变化趋势

4.2 未来气候的变化

4.2.1 天气发生器介绍

4.2.2 材料和方法

4.2.3 分析结果

4.3 水稻产量形成期间的极端天气出现频率

4.4 气候变化对水稻生育期的影响

4.4.1 水稻生育期模型

4.4.2 参数的确定和检验

4.4.3 未来气候情景下的水稻生育期的变化

4.5 气候变化对水稻产量变化分析

4.6 本章小结

第五章 总结

5.1 本文主要结论

5.2 本文特色

5.3 问题和展望

参考文献

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