石油收入对海湾国家经济的贡献——石油价格波动对GDP增长的影响

摘要

This paper use macroeconomic analytical approaches and techniques, based on graphs and tables drawn from collected data, to test and analyze the effects that oil prices fluctuation may cause to the GDP growth and hence the entire developed economy of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) six countries comprising: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, where their ability to produce oil at a lower opportunity cost than other producing countries give them a relatively comparative advantage, and hence their gains from oil incomes rose rapidly. The different components of GDP in GCC bloc assume to be affected by the fluctuation in oil prices where oil consist 80％ of total Exports in the region, more than half of the investments are in oil sectors, the public consumption also depend on oil income in more than two third, therefore, the prices fluctuations make it possible that economic growth can be much affected by the change and instability in oil incomes. The results obtained in this Study indicate a significant Linear Linkage from Oil income to GDP. The results indicate then that, Oil incomes are a very important factor in economic growth in the GCC block, and confirm previous evidence, obtained by a number of researches, that the Economy Growth in GCC depend largely, at least in more than half, on Oil Incomes, that result were proved by many different macroeconomic researches which indicated a directional affect from Oil prices to GDP in the panel of the Gulf Cooperation Council GCC.

目录

英文文摘

论文说明：List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

声明

Acknowledgements

论文概述

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1. Statement of the Problem

1.2. Purpose and Objective of the Study

1.3. Importance and Signification of the Study

1.4. Methodology and Organization of the Study

Chapter 2: Overview of Oil and Gulf Council Countries

2.1. Background of Oil history

2.2. Overview of Economic Situation of GCC

2.3. Oil exploration industry in the Region

2.4. The Economic Cooperation between China and GCC in Energy

Chapter 3: Literature Review

3.1. Review of Oil income contribution to GDP

3.2. Review of others Empirical and theatrical results.

3.3. Review of Economic Cooperation and Integration

3.4. Our Analysis Frame Work

Chapter4: Analysis of Oil Prices Fluctuation effects on GDP

4.1. Analysis of Prices Fluctuation

4.1.1. Historical analysis

4.1.2. Analyze of the recent years

4.2.Analysis of economic spread development and GDP growth for Gulf Council Countries

4.2.1. Analyze of Oil Revenues for GCC Region

4.2.2. Linkage between Oil and Economies in GCC

4.2.3. Analyze of high inflation rates caused by high oil incomes

Chapter 5: Diversification of the GCC Economies and Future Forecasts

5.1. GCC Economic Diversification

5.1.1. The oil Sector as a main factor for diversification in GCC

5.1.2. Reducing the Role of the State in the Economy

5.1.3. Influence on Regional Growth

5.2. Short and Long Term Forecast for the Oil role in Economic Growth of GCC Countries

5.2.1. Forecast for the short and long term

5.2.2. Substitutions efficiency of changing energy resources

Chapter 6: Challenges and the Results of the Study

1.Challenges for the oil sector in GCC economy

2. Results of our Research

3. Recommendations

4. Implications of collecting Right Data

General Conclusion

Annexes

Appendix

Bibliography

Publications