Research on the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation and oil import to China's GDP

摘要

In recent years, China's degree of dependence on foreign oil has been getting higher and higher. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has an enormous influence on China's import of crude oil, which continually shocks the economic development of China. In this paper, the Markov Property of international oil price fluctuation is proven, and Markov Chain's stable State Transition Probability is calculated. Under each Markov state, the GDP cost about every import policy is calculated. Finally Linear Programming Model is build which can get the optimal import policy. By the model, this paper estimates that the fluctuation of the international oil price can cause a loss about 47.078 billion Yuan to GDP in a single month. Besides, we get some decision making methods according to the state of international oil price. Finally, based on the research, four suggestions to oil importing are put forward in the paper.