交通运输枢纽乘客行为建模：以大连高铁站为例

摘要

Out-of-vehicle times tend to be perceived as being more burdensome than in-vehicle timeby transit users when making transfers.Empirical evidence has shown that a large portion ofpublic transport journeys involves at least one transfer and this experience affects travelers'satisfaction with public transport service.Increase in trip chaining complexity has beenidentified as a barrier to the use of public transport.Due to the dispersed nature of originsand destinations, public transport operators are unable to provide direct connections for allorigin-destinations pairs.Given the importance of out-vehicle times on travel choices,intermodal connectivity at transfer facilities is a critical part of the overall transportation
　　network effectiveness.Despite their importance, transfers have been long overlooked bydecision-makers, transport planners, and analysts.This is due to
　　1) not enough attention hasbeen given to the effects of out-of—vehicle travel on ridership,
　　2) it is difficult tocomprehensively analyse transfer facilities using uniform criteria due to a large variation insize, modes served, location, and amenities of transfer facilities and
　　3) analysis methods are
　　too primitive.
　　This study has two main objectives.The first objective is to analyse the various
　　elements of transfer that matter most to passengers.The second objective is to determine theinfluence of out-of-vehicle provisions offered by public transit operators, on transit users'perception of trip attributes related to transfers.A user stated preference survey wasconducted at Dalian high speed rail and the data was modelled using discrete choicemodelling.The study evaluated different transfer experience and its associated components(e.g transfer walking and waiting times) and physical characteristics.The trip component
　　heavily penalised were waiting time at the station and the lift.Transfer facilities thatintegrate various transportation modes in one location encourage people to use publictransport by reducing the burdens of transfers.
　　Key words: Transfer; Public transport; Travel behaviour; Dalian high speed rail station

目录

声明

List of Tables

1 Introduction

1．1 Background

1．2 Transfers and Public Transport Systems

1．3 Transfer Planning and Public Transport Service

1．4 Research Objectives

1．5 Thesis Structure

2 Literature Review

2．1 Public Transport

2．1．1 Multimodal Transportation Networks

2．1．2 Complexity of Transfer Activities

2．2 Transfer Planning in Public Transport

2．2．1 Transfer Component of Public Transport Planning

2．2．2 Importance of Transfer Facilities

2．3 Literature of Transfer Behaviour Analysis

2．3．1 Theory of Planned Behaviour

2．3．2 Transfer E×perience and Travel decisions

2．3．3 Analysis Methods

2．3．4 Assessment of Transfer Penalty

2．3．4 Variation of Transfer Experience by Person，Trip，and Time

3 Methodology

3．1 Discrete Choice Theory and Random Utility Models

3．1．1 Elements of Choice Process

3．1．2 Random Utility Models

3．2 Model Estimation Methods

3．2．1 Maximum Likelihood Method

3．2．2 Least Square Method

3．3 Data Collection Methods

3．3．1 Stated Preference Survey(SP)

3．3．2 Revealed Preference(RP)Survey

4 Case Study：Dalian High Speed Rail

4．1 Trip Attributes

4．2 Design and application of the stated choice survey

4．3 Data Summaries

5．Model Development

5．1 Discrete Choice Model Structure

5．2 Analysis of model estimation results

5．3 Discussion of model results and analysis of survey results

5．3．1 Cost

5．3．2 Wait time

5．3．3 Walking time

5．3．4 Availability of Lift and Escalator

6 Conclusion

6．1 Future Research

6．1．1 Intermodal Transfers

6．1．2 Transfer Facility Design

References

攻读硕士学位期间发表学术论文情况

Acknowledgements

Appendix