The impact of international trade and FDI on economic growth in developing countries“Southeast Asia”

摘要

The relationship between trade and growth is envisaged through a Trade and Foreign Direct Investment strategy.In addition, we also consider the most important factor that engine economic growth through using time period 1990 to 2013, this thesis examines the impact force, and domestic Investment.For this panel data model analysis adopts a regression analysis was carried out, and then come up with appropriate model by the Hausman test of using STATA 13 econometric software.The result shows that fixed effect is the most appropriate model, and our results showed that economic growth positively impacted on developing countries' economic growth.With variables integrated, it is to identify long-run equilibrium relationships between the GDP growths to the FDI, labour force, net ODA receive, inflation, trade openness,and domestic investment in the country.Thus, trade and FDI on economic growth in developing countries “Southeast Asia”, by using panel data analysis and include has GDP, FDI, Inflation, Trade openness, ODA, Labour long run, Trade and FDI has a positive impact on GDP growth; FDI do not impact positively on the GDP growth rate.That leads to crowding out effect of investment from country to country in this group that have a good trade policy and transfer technology to each other; this is the main reason for engine economic growth and become of civilization.Moreover, the infrastructure development also acts more efficient to attract FDI by showing a positive relationship with growth.It is recommended that Southeast Asia would diversify base to include another variable of case study.
　　In order to get an overview of the economic, trade and FDI in Southeast Asia we have mostly used scientific articles from different institutes and reports from organizations such as the World Bank.Statistics have been collected mostly from the webpage of the State Statistics Institute of Southeast Asia and international organizations such as the World Bank,(1990-2013) database and National Institute of statistics (Southeast Asia).

目录

声明

ABSTRACT

Table of Contents

LIST OF FIGURES

1．INTRODUCTION

1．1 Introduction

1．2 Statement of the Problem

1．3 Significance of the Study

1．4 Objectives of the Study

1．5 Research Questions

1．6 Expect result

1．7 Research design

2．THEORY REVIEW

2．1 Theory Literature

2．1．1 Economic growth theories

2．1．2 Classical growth theory

2．1．3 Neoclassical growth theory

2．1．4 Endogenous growth model theory

2．2 Empirical literature

3．GENERAL OVERVIEW

3．1 INTRODUCTION TO ASEAN

3．2 International Trade

3．2．1 Trade Development of Association of Southeast Asian Nations by country

3．2．2 Foreign Direct Investment between ASEAN and China

3．2．3 Economic Growth in ASEAN

3．3 Trend of FDI，Trade，and Economic growth

3．3．1 Trend of Foreign direct investment

3．2．2 Trend of Trade

3．3．2 Trend of GDP Growth

3．4 Key Trends of FDI，Export and GDP in Southeast Asia

3．4．1 Trend of Real GDP

3．4．2 Trend of Export

3．4．3．Trend of FDI inflow

4．THE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

4．1 Economic specification and Methodology

4．1．1 Research Methodology

4．1．2 Research Model

4．1．3 The processing of panel data analysis

4．1．4 Methodology

4．1．5 Diagnostic tests

4．2 Data

4．2．1 Data description and Data sources

4．2．2 Data source

4．2．3 Data description

4．2．4 General trend of inward growth，FDI，and Trade

4．2．5 General trend of GDP，FDI，and Trade openness

4．3 Regression Result

4．3．1 Pooled ordinary least square model (Pooled OLS model)

4．3．2．The least square dummy variable model (LSDV)

4．3．3 Hausman test

4．3．4．A Fixed effect models

4．3．5 Diagnostic tests

5．CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION

5．1 Conclusions

5．2 Policy Implication

5．3 Future study Areas

REFERENCES

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

APPENDIX