肯尼亚玉米化肥补贴政策影响研究

摘要

“加速农资准入国家计划”(NAAIAP)补贴项目成立于2006年，是一种安全保障计划，旨在解决贫困农户中的粮食不安全和贫困问题。本研究利用截面数据，通过对200名农民数据进行线性回归分析，多项类别变量回归分析和Probit分析而得，数据来自于2009/2010季度农业的数据，由此估算NAAIAP项目对塔纳河北面的贫困和弱势农户的补贴影响。研究中包含和排除的控制错误集中在农民实际上已经收到凭证。观察指出，那些具有小学教育水平的老年男性农民，其主要的收入来源是农业，收入水平达平均1美元一天。这些农民平均拥有4英亩土地，其中只有一半是用于生产，并且没有金融服务，主要归因于缺乏抵押品和低水平的年销售收入，同时存在路边市场和一般信息不对称。模型结果表明，各种由使用化肥而得的收入的投资回报对过去的化肥使用，在合适的季节使用化肥以及公共财政支持，如集团储蓄，具有敏感的残余效应。因此这些发现证实本研究的重要性，能为政策制定者提供更深的洞察力，并提供有价值关于政策的影响，设计和规划目标的实现的信息。

目录

声明

摘要

ABSTRACT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

1．1 Introduction

1．1．1 Background

1．1．2 Agricultural sector policies

1．2 Problem Statement

1．3 Research Objective

1．4 Research Question

1．5 Research Hypothesis

1．6 Justification for the study

1．7 Conceptual Framework

1．8 Scope of the study

1．9 Definition of Terms

1．10 Limitations to the study

Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2．1 Fertilizer Subsidies and Input Use

2．2 “Smart” Subsidies

2．2．1 Design of “Smart’’ Subsidy Programmes

2．3 Maize Value Chain and Fertilizer Subsidies

Chapter 3 STATUS OF THE FERTILIZER AND MAIZE SECTORS IN KENYA

3．1 Status of The Fertilizer Sector In Kenya

3．1．1 Fertilizer and Fertilizer subsidy Policy in Kenya

3．1．2 Major developments in the fertilizer sector

3．1．3 Evolution of maize marketing in Kenya

3．1．4 Fertilizer demand and supply trends

3．1．5 Fertilizer production and consumption

3．1．6 Drivers of Fertilizer Supply and Demand

3．1．7 Fertilizer types and cost

3．1．8 Fertilizer subsidies Programs in African Countries

3．1．9 Smart Subsidies

3．2．The National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme(NAAIAP)

3．2．1 Overview Of The Programme

3．2．2 Projeet Components

3．3 The Status of The Maize Subsector In Kenya

3．3．1 Maize production

3．3．2 Technical efficiency and allocative efficiency

3．3．3 Maize marketing

3．3．4 Maize consumption

Chapter 4 DATA ANALYSIS

4．1 Study Area

4．2 Agriculture in Tana River County

4．2．1 Farming Systems in Tana River County

4．2．2 Sample frame

4．3 Types and Sources of data

4．4 Data analysis

4．5 Econometric Model

4．6 Model 1：Estimating Fertilizer subsidy effects on Household income；The Multinomial Approach

4．6．1 Model 1 Results

4．7 Model 2：Estimating Fertilizer subsidy effects on Commercialization；The Probit Approach

4．7．1 Model 2 Results

4．7．2 Determinants of Commercialization

4．8 Definition of Variables

Chapter 5 FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION

5．1 Descriptive Statistics

5．1．1 Background information

Chapter 6 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

REFERENCES

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT