DAM BREAK ANALYSIS OF EVINOS EARTH DAM: FORECASTING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD WAVE

摘要

In this paper we present an assessment of the hazard involved in the potential failure of Evinos Dam i.e. we present an estimate of the downstream flood wave that would be produced by such failure. We evaluate the various hydraulics aspects of the dam break hazard for the Evinos Dam and we compute the characteristics of the downstream flood wave following the dam failure for six scenarios regarding the final width and time lapse of the breach formation. We find that although in these scenarios the base breach width varies from 80 to 230 m, the time of the breach formation varies from one to three hours, and although the maximum discharge immediately downstream of the dam varies from 11270 m3/s to 79000 m /s (more than seven times), the peak free surface elevation (m.s.l.) 60 km downstream (village of Evinoxori) varies only from 19.1 to 16.3 m (small difference). We present drawings of the peak elevation, the max depth and the peak velocity of the flood wave as a function of the downstream distance and the time, at which max elevation occurs, for various scenarios of the development of the breach.