The potential of the electric vehicle; a scenario analysis for Amsterdam

摘要

This paper investigates by means of a scenario analysis which conditions have to be fulfilled for a successful introduction of electric vehicles in the city of Amsterdam. First, a short introduction to Amsterdam and electric vehicles is given. Next, four scenarios are constructed by means of the so-called Spider-model. The four quadrants of the model represent policy concerns about (inter)national flanking policies, local economic developments, loal spatial policies and public transport policies, respectively. Four scenarios are constructed: 'Prosperous Amsterdam', 'Sustainable Amsterdam', "Pauperized Amsterdam' and 'Lonely Amsterdam'. It is concluded that flanking policies at both the (inter)national and local level as well as a positive economic development are a sine qua non for a successful introduction and adoption of the electric vehicle. When these conditions are fulfilled, the electric vehicle may decisively contribute to the achievement of a more environmental friendly urban transport system.