Transport oil product consumption and GHG emission reduction potential in China: An electric vehicle-based scenario analysis

摘要

China’s transport sector is facing enormous challenges from soaring energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Transport electrification has been viewed as a major solution to transportation decarbonization, and electric vehicles (EVs) have attracted considerable attention from policymakers. This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of EVs in China. A system dynamics model is developed and applied to assess the energy-saving and emission-reducing impacts of the projected penetration of EVs until the year 2030. Five types of scenarios of various EV penetration rates, electricity generation mixes, and the speed of technological improvement are discussed. Results confirm that reductions in transport GHG emissions and gasoline and diesel consumption by 3.0%–16.2%, 4.4%–16.1%, and 15.8%–34.3%, respectively, will be achieved by 2030 under China’s projected EV penetration scenarios. Results also confirm that if EV penetration is accompanied by decarbonized electricity generation, that is, the use of 55% coal by 2030, then total transport GHG emissions will be further reduced by 0.8%–4.4%. Moreover, further reductions of GHG emissions of up to 5.6% could be achieved through technological improvement. The promotion of EVs could substantially affect the reduction of transport GHG emissions in China, despite the uncertainty of the influence intensity, which is dependent on the penetration rate of EVs, the decarbonization of the power sector, and the technological improvement efficiency of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles.