Electric and Hybrid Vehicle System Research and Development Project: Hybrid Vehicle Potential Assessment. Volume VIII. Scenario Generation

摘要

Scenarios are described which have been generated in support of the Hybrid Vehicle Potential Assessment Task under the JPL Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Systems Research and Development Project. The primary function of the scenario generation is to develop a set of consistent and credible forecasts required to estimate the potential impact of hybrid vehicles on future petroleum consumption in the USA, given a set of specific electric, hybrid and conventional vehicle designs. The forecasts are limited to the next 32 years (1978 to 2010. The four major areas of concern are: population and vehicle fleet size; travel patterns and vehicle fleet mix; conventional vehicle technology (Otto baseline); battery technology; and prices. The forecasts have been generated to reflect two baseline scenarios, a Petroleum Conservation Scenario (Scenario A) and an Energy Conservation Scenario (Scenario B). The primary assumption in Scenario A is higher gasoline prices than in Scenario B. This should result in less travel per car and an increased demand for smaller and more fuel efficient cars (compared to Scenario B). In Scenario B the primary assumption is higher prices on cars (new as well as used) than in Scenario A. This should lead to less cars (compared to Scenario A) and a shift to other modes of transportation. (ERA citation 05:022632)