Assessing the Impact of Requirements Volatility on the SE Process using Bayesian Analysis

摘要

There are many factors that affect the level of requirements volatility a systemrnexperiences over its lifecycle. Improper requirements generation, undocumented userrnexpectations, conflicting design decisions, and anticipated / unanticipated world states arernrepresentative of these volatility factors. Combined, these volatility factors adverselyrnaffect successful system development. This paper proposes that a Bayesian Network canrnbe used to support reasonable judgments concerning the most likely sources and types ofrnrequirements volatility a developing system will experience prior to startingrndevelopment; and by doing so it is possible to predict the level of requirements volatilityrnthe system will experience over its lifecycle. This assessment offers valuable insight tornthe system’s developers, particularly by providing a starting point for risk mitigationrnplanning and execution.