Sustaining lifecycle value: Valuable changeability analysis with era simulation

摘要

This paper details a method involving a series of metrics and visuals designed to assist in the determination of a single design or set of designs' valuable changeability in the era domain of Epoch-Era Analysis (EEA). A brief introduction to the necessary concepts of EEA is included, with references for further information. Examples are provided in the form of a partial case study of a potential orbit-realigning space tug system. The method is shown to effectively distinguish the lifecycle value of designs of interest, quantify the value and frequency of use for the various change mechanisms, and offer a value for the tradeoff between initial costs and lifetime returns associated with including change mechanisms. Reference [8] is a companion paper (recommended to be read first), detailing additional metrics and methods used to value system changeability in the multi-epoch domain. Multi-epoch analysis is best suited for understanding the performance of systems across the space of potential future uncertainties when considering their ability to change design; era analysis uncovers additional time-dependent information related to lifetime value and applied change mechanism usage.