Dealing with Uncertainties? Combining System Dynamics with Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis or with Exploratory Modelling

摘要

System Dynamics is often used to explore issues that are characterised by uncertainties. This paper discusses first of all different types of uncertainties that system dynamicists need to deal with and the tools they already use to deal with these uncertainties. From this discussion it is concluded that stand-alone System Dynamics is often not sufficient to deal with uncertainties. Then, two venues for improving the capacity of System Dynamics to deal with uncertainties are discussed, in both cases, by matching System Dynamics with other method(ologie)s: first with Multi-Attribute Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, and finally with Exploratory Modelling.