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Long-term variations in runoff and temperature in Sweden

机译:瑞典径流和温度的长期变化

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The objective of this paper is to study long-term variations in runoff and flood frequency in Sweden. Runoff over the 20th century increased by about 4% on average, but the trend was not statistically significant. The runoff during 1981-2000 was about 8% above the century average, but runoff in the 1920s was also as high. Records from the 19th century indicate that runoff was higher then, but temperatures were lower. The combination of high temperatures and high runoff in recent years is quite different from earlier records. The increase in the average level of annual floods in northern Sweden was larger, about +10%, but problems with the reliability of older data made it difficult to conclude that the change is in fact significant. The average increase at a selection of the most reliable stations was considerably smaller.
机译:本文的目的是研究瑞典径流和洪水频率的长期变化。 20世纪的径流平均增加了约4%,但趋势没有统计学意义。 1981-2000年期间的径流量比本世纪的平均水平高出约8%,但1920年代的径流量也很高。 19世纪的记录表明,径流比那时要高,但温度要低。近年来高温和高径流量的组合与早期的记录有很大不同。瑞典北部的年平均洪水数量增加幅度较大,约为+ 10%,但是较旧数据的可靠性问题使我们很难得出结论,即这一变化实际上是重大的。在选择了最可靠的电台后,平均增幅要小得多。

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