Evaluation of Private Sector Roles in Space Resource Development

摘要

An integrated engineering and financial modeling approach has been developed and used to evaluate thernpotential for private sector investment in space resource development, and to assess possible roles of the public sectorrnin fostering private interest. This paper presents the modeling approach and its results for a transportation service usingrnpropellant extracted from lunar regolith. The analysis starts with careful case study definition, including an analysis ofrnthe customer base and market requirements, which are the basis for design of a modular, scalable space architecture.rnThe derived non-recurring, recurring and operations costs become inputs for a 'standard' financial model, as used inrnany commercial business plan. This model generates pro forma financial statements, calculates the amount ofrncapitalization required, and generates return on equity calculations using two valuation metrics of direct interest tornprivate investors: market enterprise value and multiples of key financial measures. Use of this model on anrnarchitecture to sell transportation services in Earth orbit based on lunar propellants shows how to rapidly test variousrnassumptions and identify interesting architectural options, key areas for investment in exploration and technology, orrninnovative business approaches that could produce an economically viable industry. The same approach can be used tornevaluate any other possible private ventures in space, and conclude on the respective roles of NASA and the privaternsector in space resource development and solar system exploration.