An integrated engineering and financial modeling approach has been developed and used to evaluate the potential for private sector investment in space resource development, and to assess possible roles of the public sector in fostering private interest. This paper presents the modeling approach and its results for a transportation service using propellant extracted from lunar regolith. The analysis starts with careful case study definition, including an analysis of the customer base and market requirements, which are the basis for design of a modular, scalable space architecture. The derived non-recurring, recurring and operations costs become inputs for a 'standard' financial model, as used in any commercial business plan. This model generates pro forma financial statements, calculates the amount of capitalization required, and generates return on equity calculations using two valuation metrics of direct interest to private investors: market enterprise value and multiples of key financial measures. Use of this model on an architecture to sell transportation services in Earth orbit based on lunar propellants shows how to rapidly test various assumptions and identify interesting architectural options, key areas for investment in exploration and technology, or innovative business approaches that could produce an economically viable industry. The same approach can be used to evaluate any other possible private ventures in space, and conclude on the respective roles of NASA and the private sector in space resource development and solar system exploration.
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