A Strategy for Achieving High Reliability for Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLVs)

摘要

Expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) have been used since the early 1960s to put numerous payloads, including humans, into space. Yet, in spite of their widespread use since that time, ELY reliability has not improved much. Why has this been the case? And, more importantly, what might be done to substantially improve the reliability of future reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) to levels needed for commercial viability, i.e., approaching that of the U.S. commercial airline industry? This paper attempts to answer these questions - by reviewing the history of launch vehicles, identifying factors important to their reliability and safety, and in doing so, offering a potential strategy for achieving high RLV reliability. The conclusion reached is that there is every reason to believe that high reliability (～0.99999 per mission) is achievable for future RLVs, if key features to enhance their inherent robustness, forgiveness, and recoverability are considered and integrated into RLV design and operation at the outset. It is hoped that this paper will serve as a catalyst for further discussions intended to ensure that high reliability is realized for RLVs.