MORE CHALLENGES, ISSUES AND LESSONS LEARNED CHASING REAL PROGNOSTIC CAPABILITIES

摘要

The desire and need for real predictive prognostic capabilities have been around for as long as man has operated complex and expensive machinery. There has been a long and growing history of trying to develop and implement various degrees of prognostic and useful life remaining capabilities. Recently, stringent Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Health Management (PHM) capability requirements are being placed on many new applications in order to enable and realize the full benefits of new and revolutionary Logistic concepts, like Autonomic Logistics, Performance Based Logistics (PBL), etc. While fault detection and fault isolation effectiveness with very low false alarm rates continue to improve on most new applications; effectively implemented prognostics requirements are even more ambitious and present very significant challenges to the program management and system design teams. This paper is one in a series that will continue to explore background, benefit impacts, and prognostic concepts; highlight some additional design challenges and issues; look at prognostic capabilities as related to PBL and long term sustainment; discuss uncertainties from requirements setting, performance and validation perspectives; and draw heavily on other related lessons learned from previous and current prognostic development efforts.