The Study of Risk Assessment and Management Based on the Theory of Safety Information Missing

摘要

The author has put forward a new accident-causing theory based on safety information missing, which argues that safety information missing is the major potential cause of accidents, and also contributes to expansion of accidents. The purpose of this study is to apply the theory to the practice of risk assessment and management. A basic introduction of the theory and a necessary analysis of safety information missing have been carried out. Based on the theory, the degree of safety information missing reflects the level of systemic risk, and both show a positive correlation. By using mathematical models of safety information missing, a basic process of quantitative risk assessment has been founded. The method has several advantages comparing with ordinary methods and can be used for comprehensive system risk identifications and effective quantitative risk assessments. This study provides a new idea and a particular method for quantitative risk assessment and management.