Indirect Economic Loss Estimation of Wenchuan Earthquake to Sichuan Province in China Based on the ARIO Model

摘要

The economic loss increasing of disaster impact has become an indisputable fact as the social-economic development. Disaster loss estimation is an important basis for reconstruction and further disaster risk mitigation strategy in the long time after disaster, especially for catastrophes like Wenchuan Earthquake and Frozen Rain and Snowstorm Disaster of 2008 in Southern China. There are almost no indirect economic loss assessment cases about natural disasters in China until now. But in some catastrophes, the indirect economic loss may be several times than direct economic loss, and which will have long-term impact on the economic development trend.