What Role Can Growth Curves Play in Forecasting with Particular Reference Technology Strategy?

摘要

Previously, papers have been presented to the IWCS which havernlooked at the use of a limited set of equations to help predict thernpath of technology. The results were promising and indicated that arnset of biologically inspired equations providing analogies forrntechnology push, consumer pull and ‘me too’ type self fuellingrngrowth had potential in predicting (a) the maximum speed etc. of arntechnology or maximum size of a market (b) the point at which arnreplacement technology should be invested in (c) understanding thernmarket dynamics driving a technology. Currently an interviewbasedrnsurvey is underway to further investigate this hypothesis. Thisrnpaper will present the preliminary results of this survey.