Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a Decision Support System for Political Decisions: The Case of Turkey's Integration into the European Union

摘要

In this paper we use Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs), a well-established Artificial Intelligence technique that incorporates ideas from Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic, to create a dynamic model of Turkey's course towards its integration into the European Union, after the decision of December 18, 2004, according to which in October 3, 2005, Turkey will start negotiating its access to the European Union. FCMs create models as collections of concepts and the various causal relations that exist between these concepts. The decision capabilities of the FCM structure are examined and presented using a model developed based on the beliefs of a domain expert in the political situation in Turkey & European Union. The model is examined both statically using graph theory techniques and dynamically through simulations. Scenarios are introduced and predictions are made by viewing dynamically the consequences of the corresponding actions.