THE ROLE OF COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT IN DECISION ANALYSIS MARSHLANDS OF MESOPOTAMIA AND AFFECTED RIPARIAN COUNTRIES

摘要

The Marshlands of Mesopotamia are caught in the middle of regional water scarcity. The marshlands in Iraq are at the bottom of the flow of water from Syria, Turkey, and Iran before it drains into the Arabian (Persian) Gulf. As a result the marshlands reflect the impacts of dams, population growth, and over extraction of water from neighboring countries which result in reduced flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and associated wetlands. The proposed dike to bisect the marshlands on the boundary line between Iran and Iraq creates a critical transboundary issue. This dike would impede flow of water into the marshland on the Iraqi side, one of the remaining pristine marshes in Iraq, a wetland unique to the world. These impacts to the marshlands cause security issues, unemployment, loss of biodiversity, economic hardship, and loss of wildlife habitat. In this paper I illustrate the cause and effect relationship of policy and practice of the countries and resulting impacts. The marshlands of Iraq are at the bottom end, as a result provide a benchmark of the environmental universe and serve as a spring board for debate and potential for positive change to Middle Eastern stability and security. The causes for the demise of the marshlands provide historical information of current effects. Through a comparative risk assessment of 8 recommendations developed under the UNEP Early Warning and Assessment Technical Report (2001); The Mesopotamian Marshlands: Demise of an Ecosystem results are identified and positive change for the marshlands of Iraq and the affected riparian countries is possible for those recommendations that will minimize the major and/or catastrophic consequences of impacts to the water resources, the public, ecology, and biodiversity of the Mesopotamian Marshlands and the affected riparian countries are selected through comparative risk assessment.