Projections of Climate Change over Non-boreal East Europe During First Half of Twenty-First Century According to Results of a Transient RCM Experiment

摘要

Climate change trends over the southern east-Europe are evaluated according to results of a climate simulation experiment with the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model driven from the lateral boundaries by results of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient climate simulation from 1960 to 2060 (SRES A1B emission scenario after 2001). The trends projected include - precipitation: winter and spring - rise over the central east-Europe and drop over the eastern Mediterranean region, summer-autumn - drop over east-Europe and northern eastern-Mediterranean, rise over the Middle East (especially in autumn); 2-m air temperature: winter and spring - rise over the whole region with a maximum over its eastern and north-eastern (especially) and south-eastern parts, summer - rise with a maximum over the Middle East and minimum over north-eastern part, autumn - rise with maximum over the Caspian, Black Seas and northern areas of the European Territory of Russia.