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Do players reason by forward induction in dynamic perfect information games?

机译:在动态完美信息游戏中向前归纳做球员的理由吗?

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We conducted an experiment where participants played a perfect-information game against a computer, which was programmed to deviate often from its backward induction strategy right at the beginning of the game. Participants knew that in each game, the computer was nevertheless optimizing against some belief about the participant's future strategy. It turned out that in the aggregate, participants were likely to respond in a way which is optimal with respect to their best-rationalization extensive form rationalizability conjecture - namely the conjecture that the computer is after a larger prize than the one it has foregone, even when this necessarily meant that the computer has attributed future irrationality to the participant when the computer made the first move in the game. Thus, it appeared that participants applied forward induction. However, there exist alternative explanations for the choices of most participants; for example, choices could be based on the extent of risk aversion that participants attributed to the computer in the remainder of the game, rather than to the sunk outside option that the computer has already foregone at the beginning of the game. For this reason, the results of the experiment do not yet provide conclusive evidence for Forward Induction reasoning on the part of the participants.
机译:我们进行了一个实验,参与者对计算机进行了完美信息游戏,该游戏被编程为频繁从游戏开始时从后向感应策略偏离。参与者知道在每场比赛中,这台计算机仍然优化了对参与者未来策略的一些信念。事实证明,在聚合中,参与者可能以符合最佳合理化广泛的形式合理化猜想最佳的方式回应 - 即该计算机在较大奖品之后的猜想,甚至当这必然意味着当计算机在游戏中第一次移动时,计算机对参与者归因于参与者的不合理性。因此,参与者似乎应用了前向诱导。但是,对大多数参与者的选择存在替代解释;例如,选择可以基于参与者在游戏的剩余时间内归因于计算机的风险厌恶程度,而不是沉没在游戏开始时已经放弃的沉没。出于这个原因,实验结果尚未提供对参与者的前瞻性诱导推理的确凿证据。

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