Empirical Analysis on the Influence Factors of Housing Price

摘要

At first the authors identify and analyze the influence factors of housing price using Granger causality test and eliminate the factors which causality relationship to housing price is not apparent. Then we get cointegration vector by means of E-G two steps, and the cointegration vector shows long-term equilibrium relationship between housing price and influence factors, and we further eliminate factors that only have a weak influence on the housing price. Based on VAR model composed by housing price and influence factors we also do Johansen cointegration test and set up the vector error correction model, then at the next step we set the impulse response function (IRF) and do variance decomposition. At last we get the conclusion: the major factors that effect housing price are land price and construction materials price.