The Forecast Demand for Affordable Housing in Harbin Based on the Gray Forecast GM(1,1) Model

摘要

Affordable housing is the main way to solve the housing difficulties of low-income social stratum. There are great achievements since the Harbin city government has been building affordable housing. However, due to the limited supply of affordable housing, a considerable number of families who meet the eligibility criteria still cannot purchase affordable housing. The government's grasp of the demand for affordable housing relate to the housing difficulties of low-income families in the settlement. Because of the sample data of the construction of affordable housing is less, affected by various uncertainty factors, using the GM(1,1) model which is used widely. Taking the inhabitant per-capita housing useable area in Harbin from 2004-2009 as the research data to fit per capita housing area in Harbin from 2010-2014. Empirical results show that GM(1,1) model in the per capita housing area forecast accuracy is better, and it’s able to predict and analysis the future per capita housing area. Then applying the SPSS software to forecast Harbin population quantity in next five years, and recombination mid and low earning social stratum actual situation in Harbin, forecasting the total demand of affordable housing from 2010 to 2014 is 59439.69m2. It provide reference for the government to formulate a construction project of affordable housing.